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Free, publicly-accessible full text available December 10, 2025
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The Prophet Inequality and Pandora's Box problems are fundamental stochastic problem with applications in Mechanism Design, Online Algorithms, Stochastic Optimization, Optimal Stopping, and Operations Research. A usual assumption in these works is that the probability distributions of the n underlying random variables are given as input to the algorithm. Since in practice these distributions need to be learned under limited feedback, we initiate the study of such stochastic problems in the Multi-Armed Bandits model. In the Multi-Armed Bandits model we interact with n unknown distributions over T rounds: in round t we play a policy x(t) and only receive the value of x(t) as feedback. The goal is to minimize the regret, which is the difference over T rounds in the total value of the optimal algorithm that knows the distributions vs. the total value of our algorithm that learns the distributions from the limited feedback. Our main results give near-optimal Õ (poly (n) √T) total regret algorithms for both Prophet Inequality and Pandora's Box. Our proofs proceed by maintaining confidence intervals on the unknown indices of the optimal policy. The exploration-exploitation tradeoff prevents us from directly refining these confidence intervals, so the main technique is to design a regret upper bound function that is learnable while playing low-regret Bandit policies.more » « less
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We study a generalization of the secretary problem, where decisions do not have to be made immediately upon applicants’ arrivals. After arriving, each applicant stays in the system for some (random) amount of time and then leaves, whereupon the algorithm has to decide irrevocably whether to select this applicant or not. The arrival and waiting times are drawn from known distributions, and the decision maker’s goal is to maximize the probability of selecting the best applicant overall. Our first main result is a characterization of the optimal policy for this setting. We show that when deciding whether to select an applicant, it suffices to know only the time and the number of applicants that have arrived so far. Furthermore, the policy is monotone nondecreasing in the number of applicants seen so far, and, under certain natural conditions, monotone nonincreasing in time. Our second main result is that when the number of applicants is large, a single threshold policy is almost optimal. Funding: A. Psomas is supported in part by the National Science Foundation [Grant CCF-2144208], a Google Research Scholar Award, and by the Algorand Centres of Excellence program managed by Algorand Foundation. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2023.2476 .more » « less
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